by ft » Thu Jan 04, 2007 8:50 pm
Alright, here's my take on the subject of US in Iraq, and Saddam's hanging.
They are two separate issues. And as such should be treated such.
Saddam shouldn't be the posterboy for any group. His record wasn't credible. His persecution of his own people wasn't a noble act.
But comparision of him to Mussolinis or Hitlers is completely illusonal. While the former set of dictators had an influence that spanned the globe, and their impact affected the peace in the world, Saddam's impact was more localized. Especially so after the first Gulf War. He was emasculated, and as such posed little threat to any sides of his borders.
Considering this, Bush's invasion of Iraq was a folly at best, and a looming disaster at it's worst. World's terrorists who claim to be fighting for Iraq are gaining critical training fighting US forces, getting seasoned, finding funding from numerous sources. Back in US, Bush is obviously having to face his detractors who have gained in influence since the debacle is getting obvious. While middle America largely shares the blame for their unstinted support of Bush during the initial years, the Democrats aren't far behind in their inability to see clearly and effectively oppose Bush on the war.
Once US pulls out of Iraq, sectarian divides are going to come home to roost. Shiites, Sunni groups and Kurds will piecemeal the country. Iranians, Syrians, Saudis, Israelis, Turks and others will vie for their zones of influence in the region.
Best case scenario will imply the situation will get worse through suggested partition, civil war, refugee transfer, and then after the energies are expended, a ceasefire will come into effect that will bring relative peace, albeit an altered middle eastern political boundries.
Worst case scenario, partition will bring in Turks, Syrians, Iranians, Saudis and potentially Kuwaitis into a Great Middle-Eastern war to protect their specific interests. This war could spill over to Israeli-Palestinian situation, and ignite another front of war in that region. Israelis entering the picture might influence Arab street to goad their masters to be part of the problem, thus bringing Egypt, Jordan and other Arab countries into the fracas.
There you have your thousand wala pattakas going off in the middle-east.
Going further into worst case scenario, a many front war involving Sunnis versus Shias, Kurds versus all anti-Kurd forces, Arabs versus Iranians, Israel versus Arab street, will ignite passions globally, destabilizing many countries social situation. Pakistani streets will witness running battles between their local sectarian groups, similarly with Indian streets.
Obviously, the supposed developed nations will not keep silent. United Nations will deliberate over high tea, the massacres, war, refugees situation, et al, but Kofi Annan or his predecessor will isse statements that will remind us of our Indian politicians.
Thus the story will unfold and look ugly.
Good for no one, hence the underlying point is that Bush's invasion of Iraq while a folly, the steps to get out of Iraq need to be taken with consideration, prudence and a degree of firmness.
So, don't pray for Saddam, pray for Iraqi people, but also don't pray for US's complete defeat and withdrawal so quickly that the situation will only worsen in Iraq. Pray for a planned withdrawal, that will still be honorable to Iraqis.